Trump wins the US election. What changes in the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, for Europe and NATO.

Donald Trump's recent victory in the 2024 US presidential election opens up new scenarios for the ongoing conflict between Russia and Ukraine. The newly elected president has made clear his desire to resolve the crisis quickly, putting on the table the option of direct negotiations and a review of military support for Ukraine. This change of leadership in Washington could change the Western approach, influencing not only Kiev's strategy but also the role of Europe and NATO in this conflict and beyond, with implications that could profoundly alter the balance in the region.

Sanctions against Russia (almost) useless

Since the beginning of the conflict in Ukraine in 2022, the international community has imposed a series of sanctions on Russia aimed at various strategic sectors in the country. These measures, mainly taken by the European Union, the United States and other Western allies, were aimed at exerting economic and political pressure on Moscow.

Let us take a closer look at them:

1. Energy sector:
   • EU import ban on Russian oil and oil products, with some temporary exceptions for specific Member States.
   • Restrictions on the export of advanced technologies for the Russian energy industry, limiting Moscow's ability to develop new fields.
2. Financial sector:
   • Exclusion of several Russian banks from the SWIFT system, hindering international transactions.
   • Freezing of Russian Central Bank assets held abroad, limiting access to foreign exchange reserves.
   • Ban on Western financial institutions from conducting transactions with sanctioned Russian banks and institutions.
3. Industrial and technological sector:
   • Restrictions on the export of dual-use goods (civil and military) and advanced technologies, including semiconductors and electronic components.
   • Ban on the export of goods and services related to the aviation and space industry.
4. Transport sector:
   • Closure of the airspace of the EU and other Western countries to Russian air carriers.
   • Ban on access to western ports for ships flying the Russian flag or operated by Russian operators.
5. Individual sanctions:
   • Freezing of assets and travel ban for numerous government officials, oligarchs and individuals linked to the Kremlin.
   • Restrictive measures against Russian propagandists and media accused of spreading disinformation.
6. Cultural and sports sector:
   • Exclusion of Russia from international sports competitions and suspension of participation in global cultural events.

The effectiveness of these measures is being continuously monitored, with the possibility of further tightening or modification depending on the evolution of the conflict and geopolitical dynamics. However, it remains a matter of debate as they have not produced the desired effects. Although the sanctions have exerted significant pressure on the Russian economy, several factors have limited their effectiveness in achieving their objectives.

Here are some of the main reasons for ineffectiveness:

1. Adaptability of the Russian economy: Russia has shown remarkable resilience, redirecting its energy exports to alternative markets, such as China and India, partly compensating for the loss of Western markets.
2. Circumvention of sanctions: Moscow has found ways to circumvent restrictions, using third countries as intermediaries for the import of sanctioned goods and exploiting loopholes in sanctions regimes.
3. Support from non-aligned countries: Some countries, including China and India, did not adhere to Western sanctions, continuing to trade with Russia and providing indirect economic support.
4. Internal resilience: The Russian authorities have implemented measures to stabilise the domestic economy, such as capital controls and support for domestic industries, mitigating the impact of sanctions.
5. Limitations on sanctions: Some sanctions have been implemented inconsistently or with exceptions, reducing their overall effectiveness.

How much aid has Ukraine received to date?

Since the beginning of the conflict with Russia in 2022, Ukraine has received significant support from both the US and European countries, including military, financial and humanitarian aid.

United States:

• Total assistance: Until November 2024, the United States has supplied Ukraine with approx. 113 billion in overall aid.
• Military assistance: Of this total, about 64 billion have been earmarked for military assistance, including supplies of arms, ammunition, training and logistical support.
• Economic and humanitarian assistance: The remaining 49 billion were deployed in direct economic aid, Ukrainian budget support and humanitarian assistance to address the refugee crisis and civil needs.

European Union and European countries:

• Total assistance: The EU countries, together with the UK, contributed around EUR 80 billion in aid to Ukraine.
• Military assistance: About EUR 30 billion have been earmarked for military assistance, including the supply of weapons, equipment and training for the Ukrainian armed forces.
• Economic and humanitarian assistance: The remaining EUR 50 billion were used in economic aid, state budget support and humanitarian assistance to support the civilian population affected by the conflict.

These contributions highlight the international community's commitment to support Ukraine through various forms of assistance, addressing the country's immediate and long-term needs, but the hoped-for results, as mentioned, have not been forthcoming.

Why can't Ukraine take the reins of the conflict?

Despite the significant military, financial and humanitarian support Ukraine has received from its Western allies, the conflict with Russia still presents numerous challenges that prevent Kiev from gaining decisive control over the situation.

The main reasons are:

1. Numerical superiority and Russian logistics: Russia has more extensive military resources, both in terms of personnel and equipment. This allows it to sustain sustained operations and supply troops more effectively than Ukraine. Moreover, Moscow has demonstrated the ability to circumvent some Western sanctions, thus maintaining the flow of armaments and resources needed for the war effort.

2. Limitations in Western aid: Although the allies have provided considerable support, there are restrictions on the type and quantity of weapons sent. For example, Ukraine has requested long-range missiles to hit strategic targets on Russian territory, but these requests have not been fully met. These limitations reduce Kiev's ability to conduct effective offensive operations.

3. Difficulties in Ukrainian counter-offensives: Ukrainian military operations, such as the summer counteroffensive of 2023, have not achieved the desired objectives. Factors such as Russian resistance, the complexity of the terrain, and the need to coordinate disparate forces have hampered Kiev's progress. In addition, Russia strengthened its defences and launched effective counter-attacks, further complicating Ukrainian operations.

4. Erosion of international support: As the conflict continues, some Western countries are showing signs of fatigue in maintaining continued support for Ukraine. Internal pressures, economic concerns and other global crises may affect the political will to continue providing large-scale aid. This decrease in support could limit Ukraine's operational capabilities in the long term.

5. Impact of climatic conditions: The approach of winter poses a significant challenge to military operations. Adverse weather conditions can slow down manoeuvres, complicate logistics and affect troop morale. Historically, winter has favoured defensive forces, giving Russia a strategic advantage.

In summary, despite the significant aid received, Ukraine faces a complex combination of internal and external factors that limit its ability to take control of the conflict. We of BrigadeFolgore.net We believe that time, combined with the human factor, is a crucial element that profoundly affects the performance of the Ukrainian forces, affecting their ability to achieve full operational success.

The limited time to train Ukrainian troops was certainly a critical factor and had an impact on the capability of the Ukrainian armed forces. Preparing an army for a war as large and intense as the one with Russia in only two years, and doing so with a wide range of modern and advanced weapons, was a huge challenge. There are some specific aspects that explain why this factor may have held back the effectiveness of the Ukrainian forces:

1. Complex transition to advanced NATO weapons:
   Ukrainian forces have traditionally been trained and equipped with Soviet- and post-Soviet-made weapons, many of which are based on very different technology than NATO-supplied weapons, such as Leopard tanks, HIMARS systems and Javelin missiles. Switching from one system to another requires time and intensive training. The handling of these complex weapons is not straightforward, especially in a wartime context, where training is forcibly accelerated.
2. Limited training and field conditions:
   Many Ukrainian soldiers received only basic training in the use of the new weapons, often in short periods abroad, and then were immediately sent to the front. This can lead to suboptimal use of equipment and increased difficulty in coordinating forces, especially in complex operations and counter-offensives. Optimal training requires realistic simulations and prolonged familiarity with weapons, something that is difficult to achieve during an active conflict.
3. Unevenness in the training of forces:
   Not all Ukrainian soldiers have had access to the same level of training or the same types of weapons, which can create an uneven force in the field. Some groups are more skilled and equipped, while others may only have basic training. This unevenness makes the coordinated and strategic management of operations complex.
4. Psychological stress and time pressure:
   The pressure of being trained and then immediately sent into battle against a well-prepared opposing force can negatively affect soldiers' morale and performance. Even highly trained armies need time to adapt and recover between operations, something that is particularly difficult in such an intense conflict.
5. Command and control systems:
   The command and control system must also quickly adapt to the new equipment and tactics. Ukrainian forces forced to integrate NATO communication and logistics systems would require an infrastructure that was not present in Ukraine before the conflict and was difficult to implement quickly.

The short period of time to train Ukrainian troops and introduce new weapons and advanced equipment in a wartime context created significant challenges. While NATO's help has been impressive, the full effectiveness of the new equipment and tactics requires time and continuous training, especially in a conflict of such magnitude and complexity.

Trump's role: will he be the man of 'peace'?

The recent Donald Trump's victory in the 2024 US presidential election could lead to significant changes in US foreign policy, potentially affecting the conflict in Ukraine and relations with Europe.

During the election campaign, Trump expressed his intention to quickly end the war in Ukraine, declaring that they could resolve the conflict 'in 24 hours'.. However, his statements raised concerns in Kiev about the possibility of reduced military and financial support from the US. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky expressed hope that Trump's approach would lead to a 'just peace' for Ukraine.

The Tycoon's victory has also generated fears among European leaders about possible changes in transatlantic relations. In particular, there is concern about a potential reduction of US involvement in NATO and a more isolationist approach in foreign policy. Some European countries may be called upon to increase their contribution to regional security and support for Ukraine.

It should be emphasised that the Kremlin welcomed the election, expressing hope for improved US-Russian relationsbut emphasised that it will be necessary to wait to assess any concrete changes.

Meanwhile, European leaders have expressed willingness to cooperate with the new administration, while expressing concerns about possible changes in US policies. In sum, Donald Trump's victory could lead to a revision of US strategies in Ukraine and in relations with Europe, including with significant implications for regional security and stability.

An opportunity for Europe towards the common defence pathway

We are convinced, however, that such behaviour by the new US administration will serve as a wake-up call to European countries, prompting them to reflect on their strategic role and the need to take a more independent and strong stance. The possible change in US policies could in fact incentivise NATO member states to finally achieve the much-discussed goal of 2% of GDP earmarked for defence, a commitment that many have so far failed to honour. This could not only improve the defence capabilities of each country, but also strengthen Europe's overall contribution to the security of the Atlantic Alliance.

In parallel, Europe could then take the opportunity to work on the creation of a continental army or at least to enhance shared military capabilities, fostering greater integration through initiatives such as the PEACH (Permanent Structured Cooperation), allowing it to develop a unified military command and coordinate resources more efficiently, making Europe less dependent on the United States for its security.

An increased investment in defence would also mean a significant boost to the military research and technological development on the old continent, with the aim of promoting an integrated European defence industry. Such a step could include improving cyber defence capabilities, building independent air defence systems and developing advanced combat and space defence assets.

Finally, this situation could stimulate greater cohesion between European countries, with the integration of intelligence and the coordination of military commands, creating a defence network capable of responding quickly and independently to threats. Trump's victory could therefore prove to be a catalyst for Europe, accelerating the path towards a common defence and making the continent more capable of protecting its security and stability independently, while continuing to cooperate with NATO allies.