Cabbages, NATO Commander: 'Prepare for a long and global challenge'
On April 3, 2025, General Christopher G. Cavoli, commander of the United States European Command (USEUCOM), presented to the U.S. Senate a detailed and troubling assessment of the strategic situation in Europe. His speech represents not only an assessment of Russia's conduct in the war in Ukraine, but also a lucid analysis of the geopolitical and military transformations that put the interests of the United States and NATO at risk.
An Evolving Alliance
Cavoli opened his testimony by highlighting the deep connection between European security and U.S. prosperity. The $6.9 trillion in annual transatlantic trade is not just an economic fact, but a strategic constraint. The network of access, basing, and overflight agreements allows the United States to project global power and intercept threats before they reach American soil. In this context, NATO is undergoing a historic transformation, aimed at strengthening deterrence and combat capability.
Russia: A Systemic and Evolving Threat
The General clearly illustrated how Russia represents the most complex challenge since the end of the Cold War. Moscow, engaged in the war against Ukraine for over three years, has demonstrated an implacable determination in pursuing long-term geopolitical objectives: expanding its territorial control, increasing its global influence, undermining the leading role of the United States and weakening the Atlantic Alliance.
Despite heavy losses — with some 790,000 casualties and thousands of vehicles and weapons systems destroyed — Russia has embarked on a rapid military rebuild. Its military strength now exceeds pre-war levels, with around 30,000 new recruits each month. Russian forces in Ukraine have reached 600,000, nearly double the initial 2022 invasion force.
This effort is also reflected in the defense industry: with a planned annual production of 1,500 tanks, 3,000 armored vehicles, and 250,000 artillery shells per month, Russia is accumulating firepower greater than that of the United States and Europe combined. At the same time, it maintains the world's largest nuclear arsenal, and is investing in new submarine, air, and cyber capabilities.
An Unconventional Weapon: Moscow's Alliances
Cavoli then highlighted the evolution of Russia's strategic alliances. The strengthening of cooperation with China, North Korea and Iran is creating a hostile bloc that endangers the global order. The introduction of 12,000 North Korean soldiers into Ukraine, the supply of Iranian missiles and drones, and joint Russian-Chinese exercises with nuclear bombers demonstrate the growing military convergence between these actors.
This geopolitical axis also works on the economic level, evading Western sanctions through payments in national currency, investments in European ports, and unconventional financing. China’s control of more than 10% of European port capacity—in many cases near military logistics hubs—poses a direct strategic risk to the United States and NATO.
Instability in the External Borders
In addition to the war in Ukraine, Russia is exploiting political volatility in peripheral areas of Europe. In Georgia and Moldova, Moscow has interfered with elections and demonstrations through sabotage, disinformation and cyberattacks. In the Balkans, it has forged ties with pro-Russian leaders to hinder Euro-Atlantic integration.
The goal is clear: to destabilize European security, increase regional influence, and reduce the global presence of the United States. In this sense, the conflict in Ukraine is only one of the many manifestations of a broader strategy.
USEUCOM's Three Strategic Missions
Cavoli reiterated the three central missions of the European Command: defending the homeland forward, projecting global power, and deterring Russian aggression.
- Defending the homeland forward means operating in the North Atlantic to prevent Russian submarine forces from approaching U.S. territory.
- Power Projection: Europe provides critical bases and legal arrangements for global operations, as demonstrated by its support to CENTCOM during the Israel-Hamas conflict.
- Deterrence: the credible presence of combat-ready forces is the basis for deterring any Russian military initiative against NATO.
Positioning of US Forces in Europe
Currently, approximately 80,000 U.S. troops are deployed in Europe — down from 105,000 in 2022. Although they represent only the 20% of the U.S. force present in Europe during the Cold War, their placement is strategic.
In the land domain, countering Russia’s ability to rapidly mass forces along NATO’s borders is essential. In the air, the replacement of fourth-generation aircraft with F-35s at RAF Lakenheath and the adoption of the Agile Combat Employment concept enhance the survivability and lethality of the air force.
At sea, the arrival of the destroyer USS Oscar Austin and the upcoming deployment of a new ocean surveillance ship enhance the ability to control the seas, which are essential for forward defense and power projection. Arctic operations with Nordic partners illustrate the growing interest in climate change and new shipping lanes.
In the cyber and space domains, collaboration with US Cyber Command and the growth of Space Forces Europe and Africa strengthen multi-domain capabilities. Special forces, present in 28 countries, play a key role in deterrence and conflict preparation.
Exercises, Investments and Cooperation
USEUCOM uses multinational exercises to build interoperability and credible warfighting capabilities, geared toward high-intensity collective defense. In parallel, the European Deterrence Initiative funds infrastructure development, material prepositioning, and operational rotations.
One example is the cooperation with Poland, which built at its own expense a $325 million depot for the equipment of a US armored brigade.
Support for Kiev and the Industrial Challenge
Since 2022, USEUCOM’s SAG-U has managed the delivery of $65.9 billion in military aid to Ukraine. In December 2024, NATO created NSATU to coordinate support and training, marking a shift toward greater accountability by the Alliance.
However, Cavoli warned: the slowness of the US military sales system (FMS) and the insufficient production capacity of the defense sector are delaying the replacement of weapons donated by the Allies, with potential strategic risks.
The Modernization of NATO
NATO has embarked on a historic modernization based on three regional plans approved at the Vilnius 2023 summit. These plans define necessary capabilities, restructure operational command and delegate more military powers to the Supreme Allied Commander Europe. This has already enabled rapid responses in complex scenarios, such as the protection of submarine infrastructure in the Baltics.
USEUCOM accelerates this process with a combat readiness approach, strengthening the Alliance and providing greater strategic flexibility for the United States to address global priorities.
Conclusion
General Cavoli’s message is unmistakable: the world has entered a new era of strategic competition. Russia is not only engaged in a brutal war in Ukraine, but has mobilized its society for a protracted conflict against the West, supported by dangerous alliances. In this context, Europe is once again the center of global security.
USEUCOM remains a critical force for U.S. forward defense, power projection, and deterrence. But, as Cavoli said, this requires “American leadership, continued investment in advanced capabilities, and a sustainable transition to an Allied-led European defense.”
The security of Europe, today as yesterday, is inextricably linked to that of the United States. And what is at stake, this time, is the very future of the liberal world order.
Published by Condoralex
Born Alessandro Generotti, C.le Maj. Parachutist on leave. Military Parachutist Patent no. 192806. 186th RGT Par. Folgore/5th BTG. Par. El Alamein/XIII Cp. Par. Condor.
Founder and administrator of the website BRIGATAFOLGORE.NET. Blogger and computer scientist by profession.
