The geopolitical situation in the Persian Gulf is experiencing a phase of extreme criticality. After Donald Trump's refusal to intervene militarily in defense of Saudi Arabia — a precedent already marked by the failure to respond following the attack on the Abqaiq refineries in 2019 and the recent firm refusal to launch attacks against the Houthis — the Saudi Kingdom finds itself dangerously exposed and abandoned by its historic allies.
The failure of the "Mecca Pact"
Just one month ago, Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman (MBS) had welcomed the leaders of Turkey and Pakistan to Mecca with great enthusiasm to sign a joint defense agreement. However, recent Houthi attacks — culminating in the launch of ballistic missiles and drones intercepted even in the skies over Mecca — have demonstrated the inconsistency of this understanding.
Despite Saudi Arabia hosting at least 8,000 Pakistani troops, neither Ankara nor Islamabad mobilized to defend the ally. Turkish and Pakistani officials confirmed they had not received any official request for support, highlighting how this new pact proved to be worthless at the moment of need.
An economic and military encirclement
The pressure on the Kingdom is total. The Iranian-led axis is tightening its grip on Saudi Arabia through attacks on multiple fronts and the blockade of crucial commercial routes in the Strait of Hormuz and the Red Sea.
To bypass the Hormuz blockade, which has heavily damaged petroleum exports, Riyadh had focused on its own East-West pipeline to the port of Yanbu. However, the strategy suffered a severe blow: pro-Iranian Shiite militias in Iraq recently struck the same pipeline — capable of transporting up to 7 million barrels per day — putting it out of service for weeks, while Houthi rebels continue to advance controlling strategic points such as the port of Mokha and the Strait of Bab el-Mandeb.
Washington's refusal, the F-35 blockade, and Europe's ineffectiveness
Broadening the view to Western allies, Riyadh's disappointment runs deep.Washington not only rejected MBS's requests to launch raids against the Houthis, but continues to maintain strong restrictions and vetoes on the supply of top-tier advanced weapons, such as the invisible F-35 fighter jets, leaving the Kingdom without the necessary leap in technological-military quality.
For its part, Europe has proven completely useless and incapable of making an impact on the regional strategic scenario: European partners remained substantially on the sidelines, offering minimal and purely logistical support limited to the United Kingdom, which intervened solely with the use of its own tanker aircraft (tanker) for in-flight refueling.
The search for alternatives and Israel's possible role
Faced with what experts define as the biggest challenge for the country since the invasion of Kuwait in 1990, the diplomatic and appeasement attempts launched by MBS with Tehran have not produced the desired results.
With old and new alliances proving insufficient to guarantee the Kingdom's security, the failure of major internal projects like NEOM and the inadequacy of traditional shields, Saudi leadership could find itself forced to evaluate new options. In this evolving scenario, Israeli officials estimate that Israel's air defense and artificial intelligence capabilities could become part of Riyadh's broader strategic considerations.
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