In the Heart of the Storm: the World as seen by US Intelligence

The US Intelligence Services Annual Report 2025 outlines an increasingly complex and dangerous world in which threats multiply and intertwine. From organised crime to terrorism, from traditional wars to new technological challenges, the United States faces a global environment where any crisis can become a fuse for a wider escalation.

The invisible enemy: cartels, cyber criminals and jihadists

In the United States, the first line of defence is now played out within the borders. Drug cartels, particularly those in Mexico, continue to flood the country with fentanyl, responsible for more than 52,000 deaths in a single year. Cyberspace has become a new battleground: hospitals, water plants and critical infrastructure are being hit by increasingly sophisticated cyber attacks. Meanwhile, terrorist groups such as ISIS and al-Qa'ida, although downsized, have not given up striking, inspiring individual attackers or planning attacks in the West.

The global challenge: China plays superpotence

Of all adversaries, China is the most dangerous systemic rival. Xi Jinping aims at world primacy by 2049 and uses every tool available: military force, technological dominance, control of raw materials and political pressure on Taiwan. Its cyber capabilities directly threaten American infrastructure, and its ties with Russia and North Korea make it even more influential. Beijing is also the main supplier of fentanyl precursor chemicals, which are then turned into drugs by the Mexican cartels.

Russia does not give up: resilient, dangerous and vindictive

Despite the conflict in Ukraine, Russia has shown itself to be adaptable. It has forged strategic alliances with China, Iran, and North Korea, relaunched its weapons industry, and maintains a fearsome nuclear force. The Kremlin continues to use cyber attacks, propaganda and covert operations to sow divisions in Western democracies. Its ability to 'disrupt' the global order remains intact, and the war in Ukraine has provided it with military experience that it shares with its allies to strengthen common capabilities.

Iran and North Korea: the unpredictable actors

Iran fuels tension in the Middle East by arming groups like Hezbollah and Hamas and supporting attacks against Israel and US forces. Although it has not yet restarted a nuclear programme, domestic and regional pressures could push it in that direction.
North Korea, on the other hand, continues unabated in the development of nuclear weapons and ballistic missiles. It has formed a defensive alliance with Russia, sending weapons to Moscow in exchange for technology and support. Meanwhile, Pyongyang finances its programmes with cyber theft on a global scale.

The axis of hostile powers

What worries US intelligence the most is the growing collaboration between these hostile powers. China, Russia, Iran and North Korea - although different in goals and interests - are strengthening each other. They exchange weapons, technology, intelligence and diplomatic support. This 'informal axis' makes every crisis potentially global: a clash with one of them could quickly involve the others.

A threat that knows no boundaries

The world described in the report is a place where war, technology, crime and propaganda merge into a single, fluid threat. The boundaries between peace and conflict, between civilians and combatants, between truth and disinformation are increasingly blurred. For the United States, it is no longer just a matter of defending itself: the very ability to lead the global order in the chaos of the 21st century is at stake.