Leverage and operational reserve: Italy and Europe take corrective action

With the balance of European security being tested by the war in Ukraine, the loss of global influence of the United States and the geopolitical rise of the BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa) bloc, more and more countries are considering a return to the compulsory conscriptionin some cases even extending it to women.

The President of Latvia Edgars Rinkevicsin an interview with the Financial Times, reiterated the need to seriously discuss the return to compulsory military service and the restoration of Cold War-era spending levels. A line that reflects the fear of an unprepared Europe in a new and consolidating world disorder.

Confirming the alarm, the record figure of the global military expenditurein 2022 reached USD 2,240 billionhighest level since 1949, with an increase of 3,7% compared to the previous year.

After post-war disarmament, a new need for critical mass

Since the end of the Cold War, many European states have drastically reduced their armed forces. Countries such as France, Germany and Italy have suspended compulsory conscription, reducing the workforce even by 38%. Only a few nations - including Finland, Greece, Norway and Switzerland - retained active military service.

Today, however, the scenario has radically changed. "The point is not necessarily to fight the Russians, but to demonstrate a sufficient presence to dissuade any aggression,' he stated Alexandr Burilkov, a researcher at Leuphana University in Lüneburg. According to Burilkov, the collective strengthening of European military capabilities is not a luxury, but a necessity 'affordable if done together, especially when considering the consequences of not being prepared'.

Pressure from the home front: 'We need more men'

The cry of alarm does not only come from analysts. They are the same Italian Armed Forcesnow under increasing pressure, to urgently call for a staff reinforcement.
The latest was theAdmiral Enrico Credentino, Chief of Naval Staff, who in an interview with The Republic stated:

"The Navy's resources are sufficient... but for a limited period. This effort can last three to four years, no longer."
He then called for an increase in staff from 30,000 to 39,000claiming to have the support of the Minister of Defence Guido Crosetto.

Also the Chief of Army Staff, Carmine Masiellostressed in a parliamentary hearing the need to increase staffing to between 133,000 and 138,000far beyond the current target of 93,100 by 2033pointing out that the numbers provided for in the regulations in force are inadequate to address high-intensity conflicts and fuel NATO missions.

The Minister Crosettoalso relaunched the idea of a Operational Reserve able to cope with prolonged conflicts:

"It is necessary to be able to defend the state at all times, from every threat and for as long as necessary."

Even the former Chief of Defence Staff, Admiral Giuseppe Cavo Dragone, now chairman of the NATO Military Committee, stated emphatically:

"We are absolutely undersized. Even with 170,000 men we would be on the edge of survival."

Conscription back on the table in Europe

Despite the reassurances of Vladimir Putin – che a marzo ha definito “una totale assurdità” l’idea di un’invasione dell’Europa – diversi Paesi europei stanno correndo ai ripari.

• In Germanythe Minister of Defence Boris Pistorius called for a plan by April 2024 to return to the Wehrpflichtcompulsory conscription, which was abolished in 2011.
• In Denmarkwhere conscription is already in force, from 2026 it will also be extended to women and will last 11 months for both sexes.
• In Czech Republicthe reintroduction of military service or alternative forms of recruitment is discussed.
• La France focuses instead on reservists: the goal is to achieve 100,000 reservists by 2024.

Countries where conscription is already active complete the picture: Switzerland, Norway, Finland, Denmark, Lithuania, Latvia, Austria, Cyprus and Greece.

The cultural obstacle: few willing to fight

One of the most critical issues is public acceptance. According to a survey Galluponly the 32% of EU citizens would be willing to fight in the event of war. In Italy, the percentage drops to 14%while it is of 23% in Germany and the 29% in Spain.

As the researcher points out Linda Slapakova of RAND Europe, the return to leverage cannot be separated from a massive investment in infrastructureselection and training systems, and a reflection on the role of the armed forces in modern society.

In conclusion

With an increasingly aggressive Russia, NATO demanding more from Europe, and America perhaps less involved, the future of European defence may also lie in a return to the compulsory conscriptiontogether with a overall strengthening of the military model.
It's not just about numbers: it's about resilience, regeneration capacity and adaptationand a defence culture involving citizens, institutions and companies.

Source: https://www.bruegel.org/analysis/defending-europe-without-us-first-estimates-what-needed