From the Baltic to Lebanon and Somalia: How Turkey Confirms Its Global Leadership

In recent years, and particularly evident during this 2026, the Republic of Turkey has consolidated an ambitious geostrategic doctrine that far exceeds the traditional boundaries of the Eastern Mediterranean and the Middle East. Leveraging its pivotal position within the Atlantic Alliance (NATO) and balancing it with an audacious autonomous diplomacy, Ankara is extending its sphere of influence along an axis that stretches from the Baltic Sea to the Levant and the Horn of Africa, directly intersecting the hottest quadrants of global security.

From the Baltic to Eastern Europe: NATO Air Patrol

Turkey's projection of power and military reliability extends well beyond regional borders, reaching the northeastern flank of Europe. Recently, the Turkish Ministry of Defense formalized a significant operational deployment at the airbase in Ämari, Estonia.

From August 1 to November 30, five Turkish multirole F-16 fighters and their support personnel are deployed in the Baltic area as part of the NATO mission of Enhanced Air Policing. This move not only represents a technical contribution to the collective commitments of the Alliance but also projects Turkey as a leading guarantor of security in the northern European airspace, ensuring 24/7 rapid reaction shifts. As stated by the ministry spokesperson Zeki Akturk:

“Our units will contribute to the security of the Baltic airspace as part of NATO's joint air defense activities, performing rapid reaction tasks 24/7”.

The Middle East and the Levant: Turkey's Ambition in Lebanon

While overseeing the Baltic skies, Ankara decisively targets the southern Levant, exploiting the security gaps left by regional geopolitical shifts. In a high-profile institutional meeting held in Ankara, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and Lebanese President Joseph Aoun outlined the guidelines for strengthened cooperation.

The talks focused on the future arrangement of Lebanon in the context of the progressive withdrawal of the United Nations contingent UNIFIL, whose disengagement is expected to begin at the end of the year and be completed by 2027. Erdogan unequivocally declared Ankara's intention to assume an active role in protecting Lebanese sovereignty:

“Following the withdrawal of the current international force, Turkey wishes to play an active role in all initiatives aimed at safeguarding Lebanon's sovereignty”.

This move aims to consolidate Turkish influence on the eastern shore of the Mediterranean, positioning Ankara as an indispensable interlocutor for Beirut and balancing the historical and competing regional influences in the land of the cedars.

The Projection in the Horn of Africa: The Strategic Model in Somalia

The African piece sees Somalia as the undisputed pivot and the most advanced model of Ankara's geopolitical and economic projection. What began in 2011 as a humanitarian response to famine has evolved into a structured system of strategic, military, and energy control.

Turkey's presence rests on deep pillars:

• The TURKSOM Base: In Mogadishu, Turkey manages its largest overseas military base, where thousands of soldiers and special forces of the Somali National Army are trained.
• Enhancement of the Military Device: The Turkish Parliament has approved the extension of the mission until 2028, alongside the terrestrial presence with the deployment of advanced air assets — including F-16 fighters and T129 attack helicopters deployed in Mogadishu — and naval units to protect the coasts.
• Energy Resources and Blue Economy: Leveraging economic and defense cooperation framework agreements, Turkey has initiated significant offshore energy explorations with the drilling ship Çağrı Bey in the deep Somali blocks. Simultaneously, through strategic joint ventures like SOMTURK (led by the armed forces pension fund OYAK), Ankara coordinates maritime governance, route security, and the management of exclusive economic zones.

Conclusions: A Global Range Geopolitics

Turkey's actions clearly outline the profile of a global middle power with pronounced multidomain capabilities. From NATO-led air policing missions in the cold Baltic, through strategic and energy engagement in Somalia, to the ambition of filling the geopolitical voids left by UNIFIL in Lebanon, Ankara's leadership demonstrates the ability to weave a dense network of interconnected interventions. This strategy not only aims to ensure national security at the borders but seeks to redefine Eurasian, African, and Mediterranean power relations, placing Turkey at the center of the crucial dossiers of the 21st century.