A necessary lesson by Paolo Mieli in Corriere della Sera, interpreted through Gastone Breccia's lens, to awaken consciences from their naivety
A beacon in the fog of naivety: The article by Paolo Mieli in the pages of Corriere della Sera performs an act of fundamental cultural and political importance: it tears away the veil of illusion and forces even the most skeptical or distracted observers to "open their eyes".At a time in history when many mistake the absence of imminent explosions for true peace, Mieli reminds us that blindness to subtle threats is the first step toward disaster.
Drawing on the soon-to-be-published volume by Gastone Breccia (professor of Military History at the University of Pavia), entitled Neither war nor peace.The era of hybrid conflicts (il Mulino), the article highlights how the different phases of modern conflict are not random episodes, but closely interconnected links in a single strategy of domination.
The Hybrid Attrition Phase: The Ecosystem of Disorientation
As highlighted in the article published in Corriere della Sera, Europe is under attack every day through an invisible yet devastating offensive: cyberattacks, economic pressure, and AI-amplified disinformation campaigns.
The analysis by Gastone Breccia and the scholars cited identifies three crucial aspects of this first phase:
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Erosion of truth and cognitive void: Contemporary disinformation does not merely seek to lie, but to create a genuine "cognitive void" in which established facts lose weight in favor of emotions, prejudices, and subjective perceptions.
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Paralysis of collective responses: The constant underlying friction polarizes public opinion."Citizens, seeing no tanks at the borders, refuse to grasp the seriousness of the danger and become reluctant to contribute to the common defense.
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The trap of denial: The most insidious weapon is the disavowal or denial of the conflict by those waging it, a veritable trap that lulls democracies into the false dream of being safe from existential threats.
The Historical Precedent: The Megarian Decree
To demonstrate the historical continuity of these dynamics, Paolo Mieli cites the account that Gastone Breccia gives of the famous Megarian Decree of 432 B.C..
Athens did not directly attack the city of Megara (an ally of Sparta) so as not to openly violate the peace treaty, but imposed economic and coercive sanctions within its own sphere of hegemony.That “hybrid” maneuver conceived by Pericles served to test Sparta’s resolve and undermine enemy cohesion, ultimately accelerating the inexorable outbreak of the Peloponnesian War.
The Shift to Open War: “The Flash of the Sword”
The central thesis of the essay by Gastone Breccia, highlighted by Paolo Mieli, reinterprets the thought of military theorist Carl von Clausewitz: the hybrid phase is not a harmless chronic condition, but the necessary prelude to the “flash of the avenging sword”, that is, the shift to the overt use of military force.
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Preparatory attrition: In the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, the conventional offensive of 2022 came after eight years of hybrid warfare and invisible attrition that began in 2014.
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Protracted hybrid warfare: In scenarios such as Taiwan, the hybrid phase can be prolonged over time to alter the balance, until the disparity in forces becomes so great as to eliminate any capacity for resistance even before an overt attack.
Conclusion: The Value of a Necessary Awakening
The article by Paolo Mieli in the Corriere della Sera deserves praise for its rare analytical CLARITY and its civic value.By explaining the thinking of Gastone Breccia, Mieli provides an essential tool to open the eyes of those who live under the illusion that the absence of bombs equates to peace.Treating the constant hybrid friction as a mere "nuisance" is the irresponsible attitude of sleepwalkers; recognizing it for what it is represents the only chance of avoiding being caught unprepared by disaster.
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