The Atlantic Ocean was a bridge, has become a front, and risks turning into a moat. This is the central thesis of the essay Storm.Reykjavik, Brest, New York and Rabat (published by Luiss University Press), written by Mario De Pizzo, a Tg1 journalist and member of the Atlantic Council.
While global attention is often focused on conflicts in the East — between Ukraine, the Middle East, Taiwan, and the direct challenge between the USA and China — the crucial theater of the 21st century remains in the West, along the North Atlantic.This oceanic belt, for seventy years the «backbone of the West» (as Ambassador Giampiero Massolo recalls in the preface), has become a veritable land of conquest.
The four strategic nodes of the «Tempesta»
Through four symbolic locations, the essay maps the new geopolitical and technological risks threatening the global balance:
1.Reykjavik and the GIUK Gap: the race for resources and undersea deterrence
The journey begins with a future—but imminent—scenario off Iceland, in the GIUK Gap (the stretch of water between Greenland, Iceland and the United Kingdom).It is the chokepoint where the major nuclear powers — the United States, Russia and China — confront one another with advanced submarines (such as the American Columbia-class, the Russian Belgorod or the Chinese Type 096), underwater drones, submarine cables, naval espionage and cyber threats.
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The Arctic and climate change: Melting ice is making the area increasingly accessible.This is where 10% of global oil reserves, 30% of natural gas and deposits of strategic minerals and rare earths (lithium, cobalt, nickel, platinum, and palladium).
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New routes and artificial intelligence: China has already launched its Ice Silk Road, while Russia seeks passages to the Atlantic to divide Europe from the US and Canada.All this is compounded by the use of autonomous weapons with Artificial Intelligence systems and the crisis of non-proliferation agreements.
2.Brest: European nuclear deterrence
In Brest, Brittany, lies l’Île Longue, the French nuclear submarine base that serves as the cornerstone of the deterrent of the European Union’s only nuclear power.
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Strengthened nuclear cooperation between France and the United Kingdom, together with recent drone attacks and hybrid threats (behind which suspicions of Moscow are mounting) highlight Europe’s vulnerability.
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French President Emmanuel Macron has proposed a plan for European extended deterrence, endorsed by eight countries, which Italy has chosen to stay out of.
3.New York: the crisis of multilateralism
The New York leg reveals the UN's deep crisis and the concurrent rise of political visions that undermine the foundations of Western civilization: the idea that power should have no limits and that ideology should bend the law.
4.Rabat and the Sahel: the contest for resources and stability in the South
The competition extends into North Africa and the Sahel, the resource-rich belt where Morocco aims to become a linchpin between the Atlantic and the Mediterranean.
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However, regional tensions with Algeria weigh heavily and Russian penetration through the militias of the Africa Corps.
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For Europe, stabilizing this region is essential to contain terrorism and migratory pressures; for the United States, it is key to securing access to critical minerals.
A nautical chart for navigating the storm
Although the scenario outlined is complex, the message of Tempesta is not a requiem for the West, but a nautical chart for navigating the storm.The book closes with a hopeful look at the Great Green Wall, the 8,000-kilometer green wall promoted by the African Union and the FAO: proof that an alternative, cooperative future is still possible.
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