Who decides who dies? Artificial intelligence in armed conflicts

In the context of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, the use of advanced technologies of artificial intelligence (AI) marked a radical transformation of military operations. The "Lavender"developed by the Israeli Defence Forces (IDF), represents one of the most controversial and discussed applications of AI in the modern theatre of war.

A new operational paradigm

Based on algorithms of deep learning and data mining, the Lavender system is designed to identify military targets - particularly Hamas members - through the automated analysis of a wide range of data, collected through the mass surveillance. Together with the complementary software "Where is Daddy?"It allowed tens of thousands of potential targets to be flagged, with each one associated with a suspicious behaviour or recurring pattern.

The approach introduces a new paradigm compared to the past, when human evaluation was central to the targeting process. With AI, the process is structured in five stages:

1. Identification of the suspect via AI.
2. Association of the target to a residence.
3. Weapon selection appropriate (drones, precision munitions or conventional bombs).
4. Authorisation of Collateral Damagewith initial policies accepting up to 15 civilians killed for every Hamas member.
5. Automated calculation of collateral damagebased on estimates via mobile data.

L’efficacia e i limiti del sistema

The model proved to be quick and efficient, but not without critical ethical and operational issues. For example, estimating collateral damage based solely on the number of mobile phones in a building caused significant errorsstriking civilian homes even in the absence of confirmation of a military presence.

To mitigate these risks, the IDF has implemented preventive procedures such as:

• Launching notices before the attacks via social media, SMS, voice messages and phone calls.
• Drones with speakers and parachuted radio transmitters with evacuation instructions.
• Tactical breaks in the attacks to allow civilians to escape.
• Humanitarian corridors biometrically checked to identify militiamen hiding among the refugees.

L’esempio di Rafah

These measures were also replicated during theRafah operation in May 2024allowing the early evacuation of large urban areas. According to military sources, this approach has reduced civilian casualtiesconstituting a reference model for western major states.

Source: https://www.esercito.difesa.it/comunicazione/editoria/Rivista-Militare/Pagine/2025/Rivista-Militare-n-1-2025.aspx