NATO is sharpening its deterrence strategy and preparing a next-generation military response to secure the Alliance’s eastern flank. Entitled «Theory of Victory», the document was drafted by the Supreme Allied Commander Europe, U.S. General Alexus Grynkewich, and will be officially presented next 12 October in Poland.
The plan envisages the operational scenario of a potential Russian aggression along the border line stretching from Finland to Bulgaria, via the Baltic States and Poland.
The plan’s two phases: from the technological barrier to the counteroffensive
According to reports leaked through Bloomberg, the strategy developed by military leaders is structured around two key phases:
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The first high-tech response: In the event of an incursion or attack, the initial defense would rely on a barrage conducted by low-cost drones, operated by a limited number of soldiers and guided by artificial intelligence for target identification.
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The «overwhelming» counteroffensive: Once the initial assault had been contained, NATO would shift to a direct attack to destroy Russian command-and-control centers, overwhelming opposing forces in the field rapidly and with crushing firepower.
Strategic uncertainties and the nuclear specter
As these are confidential reports, several crucial questions remain open: estimates of casualties, the units involved, and the Kremlin’s possible response.
NATO’s strategy comes amid a tense geopolitical environment, as diplomacy continues to struggle.Last 1 October, Russian President Vladimir Putin reiterated the threat of using nuclear weapons in the event of a direct conflict with NATO.
The European Union's move: the Emergency Security Protocol
While NATO plans its conventional military response, the European Union is taking action on the hybrid warfare front.
On Monday 28 September, EU defense ministers began discussions to establish the «Emergency Security Protocol»: a common consultation mechanism — inspired by Article 4 of NATO — to coordinate countermeasures against:
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Sabotage and arson;
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Cyber attacks;
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Airspace violations.
This new mechanism will complement NATO's warning systems, allowing the 27 member states to exchange intelligence and agree on joint responses.
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