The India-Pakistan Standoff on the Kashmir Border

In the last 24 hours, the climate between India and Pakistan has experienced a sudden escalation. On 29 April 2025, the Pakistani Defence Minister, Khawaja Asif, stated that Islamabad has credible intelligence that India could launch a military incursion within 24-36 hours Reuters. In response, Pakistan deployed reinforcements along the Line of Control (LoC), increased artillery patrols and raised the alert level of the air force. Reuters. Simultaneously, India closed its airspace to Pakistani airlines until 23 May, provoking diplomatic and commercial retaliation.

The confrontation in the Kashmir region is not new, but the combination of a recent terrorist attack in Pahalgam (22 April 2025) - which cost the lives of 26 tourists - and the harsh words of leaders of both countries has made many observers fear a direct conflict between two nuclear powers. While maintaining a diplomatic dialogue (military commanders hold routine weekly meetings), signs on the ground point to an acceleration of the conventional and nuclear arms race.

Comparing Strengths and Capabilities

A comparative analysis of the military capabilities of India and Pakistan, prepared by the IISS and relayed by Reuters, shows a clear Indian advantage in terms of numbers and quality:

• Active personnel1.4 million vs. 700 000
• Main Battle Tanks3 740 vs 2 537
• Artillery9 743 pieces vs. 4 619
• Fighter aircraft730 vs. 452
• Submarines16 vs. 8
• Aircraft carrier2 vs. 0

Both countries have almost equal nuclear arsenals (172 warheads for India, 170 for Pakistan), making any conventional confrontation potentially very risky. The deterrent value of nuclear weapons has so far prevented direct escalation, but strong nationalism and domestic pressures are pushing both governments to show firmness.

Humanitarian Impact and Peace Perspectives

An open conflict in Kashmir would have devastating consequences:

• Trapped civiliansThousands of families live in villages along the LoC, at risk of artillery fire and air raids. Humanitarian programmes such as Red Crescent are already on high alert.
• Displaced persons and refugeesThe closure of borders and connecting routes, such as at the Attari-Wagah crossing, has already created long queues of cars and families in transit.
• Regional economyTrade blockade and mutual sanctions between New Delhi and Islamabad damage local agriculture, tourism and industries.

The international community, with appeals from the UN, the US and the UK, is calling for calm and mediation. The president of the Pakistani region of Kashmir has called for the intervention of third countries such as Saudi Arabia and Qatar to facilitate peace negotiations. However, as long as mutual accusations of supporting terrorism and attempts to show strength persist, the risk of escalation remains high.

Source: https://www.reuters.com/world/pakistans-minister-tarar-says-india-may-launch-military-strike-within-next-24-36-2025-04-29/?utm_source=chatgpt.com