From Protection to Power: The "Draghi Doctrine" for a Federal Defense

The speech delivered yesterday by Mario Draghi at the University of Ku Leuven marks the end of European strategic innocence. For decades, Europe has lived under the protective American umbrella, delegating its security to Washington to focus on commercial prosperity. But today, with the global order "defunct," Draghi makes it clear that defense is no longer optional, but the very condition of the Union's existence.

The Failure of Defense by Delegation

Draghi's diagnosis is ruthless: the European security doctrine, shaped by U.S. protection, has collapsed. If commerce and security once traveled on parallel tracks, today the two worlds are on a collision course. The United States no longer considers European integrity an absolute value but sees our fragmentation as a function of its own interests. Simultaneously, China uses supply chains (rare earths and technology) as true weapons of coercion.

"A Europe unified in commerce but fragmented in defense will see its commercial power exploited at the expense of its security dependence."

The Value of Strength: Defending Interests to Save Values

The deepest point of Draghi's analysis concerns the link between ethics and strength. Europe has often harbored the illusion of being a "normative power" (capable of influencing the world only with laws and treaties) without the support of a real deterrent capability. Draghi demolishes this paradigm:

"A Europe that cannot defend its interests will not be able to preserve its values for long."

From a defense perspective, this means that democracy, the rule of law, and civil rights are not abstract entities that protect themselves; they rest on the material capacity to resist economic blackmail and military threats. Without strategic autonomy (energy, technology, armaments), European values become vulnerable to the priorities of hegemonic powers.

The Structural Problem: The Confederation is a Target

The "pragmatic federalism" responds to an operational necessity. The current confederal model — based on 27 states coordinating armies and budgets autonomously — is inefficient.

• The Right of Veto as a vulnerability: In a rapid crisis, unanimity prevents deterrence.
• Industrial fragmentation: Europe disperses resources in too many duplicated weapon systems, while competitors scale military AI.
• The tactic of "divide et impera": Without federal integration, individual states are vulnerable to targeted external pressures.

Defense as the Engine of the Federation

Draghi proposes using common action in defense to forge the union. The example of Greenland demonstrates that only the willingness to "resist rather than accept" forces partners into a real strategic assessment. To become a "Power," Europe must:

1. Integrate value chains: Reduce extreme dependence (90%) on Chinese rare earths.
2. Overcome unanimity: Rapid decision-making mechanisms to respond to hybrid threats.
3. Invest in Hard Power: Transform commercial primacy into the capacity for projection and defense of critical nodes.

Conclusion: The Last Call for Survival

The "Draghi Doctrine" is an emergency plan. Europe has everything — technology, wealth, culture — but must decide whether to be a subject or an object of history. If we are unable to defend our interests with a federal force, our values will be the first to be sacrificed on the altar of new global balances.