Defence and threats: NATO spends more, but can Europe really keep up?

Con la guerra in Ucraina che infuria dal 2022 e la linea politica di Donald Trump nei confronti della Nato, l’Europa si trova in un momento cruciale per il suo futuro in materia di sicurezza. L’Alleanza Atlantica, storicamente trainata dagli Stati Uniti, si trova oggi di fronte a una crescente necessità di riorganizzazione, non solo strategica ma anche finanziaria.

The US remains the largest NATO contributor, with a colossal defence budget of 895.6 billion in 2024 (approximately USD 880 billion in 2023). A figure so high that it alone exceeds the sum of the next eight countries in the world in terms of military investment, according to an analysis by Al Jazeera based on data from the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI). This primacy reflects Washington's dominant role in the global chessboard, but also highlights the asymmetry between NATO members.

The global arms race

Global military expenditure reached a record high in 2023 of USD 2,440 billionup 6.8% over the previous year. This is the most significant jump since 2009, and marks the return of competition between major powers. The Chinawith 309 billion, retains second place, followed by Russia with 126 billion. However, if one looks at expenditure per capita, the proportions change dramatically: the US invests USD 2,694 per inhabitantwhile China spends 208. Israel, with $2,997 per inhabitant, holds the world record. L’Arabia Sauditawith expenditure amounting to 7.1% of its GDP, reaches 2,052 dollars per capitaa figure comparable to the American one.

Among the most extreme cases, Ukraine stands out: in the midst of the conflict with Russia, in 2023 it allocated 62.1 billion to defence, amounting to 36.7% of GDP and to over half of total public expenditure.

Europe increases spending, but lags behind

Over the past ten years, European military expenditure has grown steadily. In the last year alone, it increased by11.7% in real terms, reaching 423.3 billion. An increase of 50% compared to 2014, ma ancora insufficiente rispetto agli standard fissati da Washington. I 23 Paesi dell’Ue membri della Nato hanno raggiunto una spesa pari al 2% of combined GDP in 2024and are expected to touch the 2.04% in 2025.

However, Donald Trump - in view of a possible re-election - launched the idea that NATO members should allocate at least 5% of its GDP to defencea proposal supported by the EU Commissioner for Foreign Affairs Kaja Kallas and also welcomed by the French President Emmanuel Macron, which aims at 3.5% of GDP for France.

Big and small efforts: Germany, Poland, Spain

Among European economies, the Germany saw an increase of 23,2% of military expenditure between 2023 and 2024, becoming the fourth largest country in the world per defence budget. The Polandon NATO's eastern border, has instead brought its commitment to the 4.12% of GDPbecoming the European country with the highest expenditure-to-GDP ratio, followed by Estonia (3,43%).

But not all European countries follow the same pace. The Spain refused to give in to Trump's pressure: it only plans to reach 2% of GDP in 2029, starting from the current 17.5 billion. L'Italywith an expenditure of USD 34.5 billion (1.49% of GDP), remains below the NATO averageinvesting 603 dollars per citizencompared to 946 in France and 1,106 in the UK.

Un’Alleanza frammentata

Today, 23 out of 32 NATO countries meet the 2% GDP target, compared to just three in 2014. But the differences remain marked. If the spending growth trend were to remain constant, an average of 3% of GDP could be reached within five years and 5% within ten. However, maintaining these rates appears unrealisticespecially without structural reform.

As pointed out Jeromin Zettelmeyerdirector of the think tank BruegelEurope must pooling military procurement to increase defensive capabilities at an affordable cost. Only through industrial cooperation and integrationthe EU will be able to strengthen its security without compromising economic stability.

Source: https://www.sipri.org/