Conscription and Operational Reserve: Italy and Europe Take Action

With the balance of European security tested by the war in Ukraine, the loss of global influence of the United States, and the geopolitical rise of the BRICS bloc (Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa), more and more countries are considering a return to mandatory conscription, in some cases even extending it to women.

The President of Latvia Edgars Rinkevics, in an interview with the Financial Times, reiterated the need to seriously discuss the return to mandatory military service and the restoration of spending levels similar to those of the Cold War era. A stance that reflects the fear of an unprepared Europe in a new consolidating global disorder.

Confirming the alarm is the record figure of global military spending: in 2022 it reached 2.240 trillion dollars, the highest level since 1949, with an increase of 3.7% compared to the previous year.

After Post-War Disarmament, a New Need for Critical Mass

Since the end of the Cold War, many European states have drastically reduced their armed forces. Countries like France, Germany, and Italy have suspended mandatory conscription, reducing personnel by up to 38%. Only a few nations – including Finland, Greece, Norway, and Switzerland – have maintained active military service.

Today, however, the scenario has radically changed. “The point is not necessarily to fight the Russians, but to demonstrate a sufficient presence to deter any aggression,” stated Alexandr Burilkov, a researcher at Leuphana University of Lüneburg. According to Burilkov, the collective strengthening of European military capabilities is not a luxury, but a necessity “affordable if done together, especially considering the consequences of a lack of preparation.”

Pressures from the Home Front: “More Men Needed”

The alarm is not only coming from analysts. The Italian Armed Forces themselves, now under increasing pressure, are urgently calling for a strengthening of personnel.
The latest was Admiral Enrico Credentino, Chief of Staff of the Navy, who in an interview with la Repubblica stated:

“The Navy's resources are sufficient... but for a limited period. This effort can last three to four years, no longer.”
He then called for an increase in personnel from 30,000 to 39,000 units, claiming to have the support of the Minister of Defense Guido Crosetto.

Also, the Chief of Staff of the Army, Carmine Masiello, emphasized in a parliamentary hearing the need to increase personnel to between 133,000 and 138,000 units, well beyond the current target of 93,100 by 2033, highlighting how the numbers provided by current legislation are inadequate to face high-intensity conflicts and sustain NATO missions.

Minister Crosetto has also revived the idea of an Operational Reserve capable of dealing with prolonged conflicts:

“It is necessary to be able to defend the State at any time, from any threat, and for as long as necessary.”

Former Chief of Defense Staff, Admiral Giuseppe Cavo Dragone, now president of the NATO Military Committee, also stated forcefully:

“We are absolutely undersized. Even with 170,000 men, we would be at the limit of survival.”

Conscription Returns to the Table in Europe

Despite reassurances from Vladimir Putin – who in March called the idea of an invasion of Europe "a total absurdity" – several European countries are taking action.

• In Germany, Defense Minister Boris Pistorius has requested a plan by April 2024 for the return to Wehrpflicht, mandatory conscription, abolished in 2011.
• In Denmark, where conscription is already in place, it will be extended to women from 2026 and will last 11 months for both sexes.
• In the Czech Republic, there is a discussion about reintroducing military service or alternative forms of recruitment.
• France is focusing on reservists: the goal is to reach 100,000 reservists by 2024.

Completing the picture are countries where conscription is already active: Switzerland, Norway, Finland, Denmark, Lithuania, Latvia, Austria, Cyprus, and Greece.

The Cultural Obstacle: Few Willing to Fight

One of the most critical issues is public consensus. According to a Gallup poll, only 32% of EU citizens would be willing to fight in case of war. In Italy, the percentage drops to 14%, while it is 23% in Germany and 29% in Spain.

As researcher Linda Slapakova of RAND Europe points out, the return to conscription cannot be separated from a massive investment in infrastructure, selection and training systems, and a reflection on the role of the armed forces in modern society.

In Conclusion

With an increasingly aggressive Russia, a NATO demanding more from Europe, and an America perhaps less involved, the future of European defense could also involve a return to mandatory conscription, along with a comprehensive strengthening of the military model.
It's not just about numbers: it requires resilience, regeneration and adaptation capabilities, and a defense culture that involves citizens, institutions, and businesses.